With the 2023 MLB Draft kicking off tonight, I thought we'd take a look back at the Astros drafts from 2012-2018 just to see how hard it is to (a) make it to the Majors and (b) be successful.
A couple of things to note here: I started with 2012 because that was Luhnow's first draft through 2018 because this is Jeremy Pena's 2nd full year in the Majors. Is it an arbitrary endpoint? Sure. Don't care.
Also, the bWAR listed is solely when they were with the Astros. Carlos Correa has posted higher than a 34.1 bWAR in his career, but that's what he did with Houston. Of course the trades for Verlander, Cole, Greinke, etc sent minor league guys to the Tigers, Pirates, and Diamondbacks who later made the Majors, that's why they're included in the "MLBers" section, but not with the Astros. Other guys were drafted, didn't sign, got drafted later and signed and made it to the Big Leagues with a different team. They're also included in the "MLBers" section, but not with the Astros.
The wide-angle view of this exercise is this:
1. From 2012-2018 the Astros had 286 draft picks.
2. 62 (21.7%) of those draft picks made it to the Majors at some point with some team in their career.
3. 38 (13.3%) of those draft picks made it to the Majors with the Astros.
4. 18 (6.3%) of those draft picks posted a bWAR of at least 0.1 in their careers to date (and I mean as of the morning of July 9, 2023).
5. 7 (2.5%) of those draft picks posted a bWAR of at least 5.0 in their careers to date.
6. 4 (1.4%) of those draft picks posted a bWAR of at least 10.0 in their careers to date.
That's...crazy.
2012 Overview: 41 draft picks, 11 MLBers, 5 played with the Astros for 43.4 bWAR
1. Carlos Correa (1st overall): 34.1 bWAR (with Houston)
2. Lance McCullers Jr (41st overall): 11.1 bWAR
3. Jordan Jankowski (1029th overall): -0.2 bWAR
4. Preston Tucker (219th overall): -0.7 bWAR
5. Brady Rodgers (96th overall): -0.9 bWAR
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2013 Overview: 40 draft picks, 6 MLBers, 3 played with the Astros for 1.5 bWAR
1. Tyler White (977th overall): 0.8 bWAR
2. Kent Emanuel (74th overall): 0.4 bWAR
3. Tony Kemp (137th overall): 0.3 bWAR
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2014 Overview: 41 draft picks, 9 MLBers, 5 played with the Astros for -0.5 bWAR
1. Derek Fisher (37th overall): 0.7 bWAR
2. Josh James (1006th overall): 0.3 bWAR
3. Dean Deetz (316th overall): 0.0 bWAR
4. J.D. Davis (75th overall): -0.5 bWAR
5. A.J. Reed (42nd overall): -1.0 bWAR
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2015 Overview: 42 draft picks, 13 MLBers, 5 played with the Astros for 50 bWAR.
1. Alex Bregman (2nd overall): 32.8 bWAR
2. Kyle Tucker (5th overall): 14.7 bWAR
3. Myles Straw (349th overall): 2.2 bWAR
4. Garrett Stubbs (229th overall): 0.3 bWAR
5. Ralph Garza (769th overall): 0.0 bWAR
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2016 Overview: 40 draft picks, 7 MLBers, 5 played with Houston for 0.2 bWAR
1. Abraham Toro (157th overall): 0.4 bWAR
2. Alex De Goti (457th overall): 0.1 bWAR
3. Ryan Hartman (227th overall): 0.0 bWAR
4. Ronnie Dawson (61st overall): -0.1 bWAR
5. Taylor Jones (577th overall): -0.2 bWAR
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2017 Overview: 42 draft picks, 13 MLBers, 10 played for the Astros for 8.8 bWAR.
1. Chas McCormick (631st overall): 5.0 bWAR
2. Jake Meyers (391st overall): 3.0 bWAR
3. Corey Julks (241st overall): 1.0 bWAR
4. Peter Solomon (121st overall): 0.4 bWAR
5. Parker Mushinski (211th overall): 0.1 bWAR
6. Joe Perez (53rd overall): 0.0 bWAR
7. J.J. Matijevic (75th overall): -0.1 bWAR
8. Tyler Ivey (91st overall): -0.1 bWAR
9. Corbin Martin (56th overall): -0.2 bWAR
10. Brandon Bielak (331st overall): -0.3 bWAR
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2018 Draft: 40 draft picks, 6 MLBers, 5 played with the Astros for 7.6 bWAR
1. Jeremy Pena (66th overall): 6.9 bWAR
2. J.P. France (432nd overall): 1.3 bWAR
3. Shawn Dubin (402nd overall): -0.1 bWAR
4. Cesar Salazar (222nd overall): -0.2 bWAR
5. David Hensley (792nd overall): -0.3 bWAR