Hey there! Y'all don't know me, but The Constable gave me the keys to the place some time ago, and I pop up on occasion and write long-winded diatribes about everyone's favorite team from Texas that doesn't play in Jerry Jones' parking lot in North Waxahachie. So here I am again, with a blitzkrieg of words about that. It's a long one and I am not sorry.
The
2018 season ended a little earlier than most expected, with the Astros ending
their World Series title defense in the ALCS against an incredible Boston team
getting all the necessary breaks along with a clutch assist from Joe West’s apparently
failing vision.
Unless you decided to boycott the World Series, and news all together, you also know Boston rode that momentum to their fourth World Series title in 14 years, which
was clinched last night in Los Angeles.
SIDENOTE: I feel terrible for the Dodgers. Two years
in a row, they’ve watched the enemy celebrate on their turf, with 5-1 final
scores befalling them in both clinchers. I feel awful for guys like Kershaw, Puig,
Turner, and Bellinger; players I enjoy watching. Then again, it feels like justice for Joc Pederson. You’ve
been paid, Joc. Onward...
The
Astros were battered and bruised, but they were beaten by a great team worthy
of the victory, so bully to them. Now comes the first in a series of incredibly
important, potentially franchise-altering off-seasons for the hometown 25.
As the
Astros constructed their core over the years, it was always assumed, and stated, that they
would retain their core stars while surrounding them with a rotating cast of
players who would fortify and shore up those stars during their long reign atop
the American League.
“Jim is committed to keeping the best team on the field for as long as possible, giving us a chance to win multiple championships,’’ general manager Jeff Luhnow said at the time of Altuve’s extension, referring to owner Jim Crane. “Part of that is developing our own players and keeping our own players and bringing in the right kinds of players. We’ve done that. We’ll see what the future holds, but we certainly have the desire and intention to keep our core together as long as possible.’’
After
winning the 2017 World Series, the Astros locked up AL MVP Jose Altuve to a
massive five-year, $151 million deal, which actually kicks in starting with the
2020 season.
While
the Astros could continue to wait on extensions for the likes of Carlos Correa,
George Springer, and Alex Bregman, they’ll have to make key decisions in the
coming 30-60 days about guys like Dallas Keuchel, Marwin Gonzalez, and Charlie
Morton, among others.
How the
free agent market rebounds from the intensely frugal winter of 2018 will determine
how the Astros will respond to competition for their own free agents, not to
mention external free agents.
Was
last winter an anomaly, or are teams prepared to wait out stars to grab cheaper
deals and avoid breaking their individual payrolls for a single star and make that the new normal? Time will
tell, but with precedent siding with a vastly longer history of teams salivating over
left-handed starters who can pitch 200 (mostly) effective innings and super
utility players, I’ll be operating under the assumption that the market will
rebound in a big way.
Not to
mention, Bryce freaking Harper is a free agent. Come on. Someone is paying that
guy double the total GDP of Moldova to play baseball for them.
Free
Agents:
LHP
Dallas Keuchel
RHP
Charlie Morton
INF/OF
Marwin Gonzalez
C/DH
Evan Gattis
C
Brian McCann* ($15 million team option for 2019; will not be exercised)
RHP Will Harris ($5.5 million team option for 2019)
LHP
Tony Sipp
C
Martin Maldonado
Top
Prospects tentatively due up in 2019 (organization rankings
in parenthesis to the left):
(1)
RHP Forrest Whitley
(2)
OF Kyle Tucker**
(4)
RHP Josh James**
(5)
LHP Cionel Perez**
(11)
LHP Framber Valdez**
(12)
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
(14)
OF Myles Straw**
(15)
C Garrett Stubbs
(17)
RHP Riley Ferrell
(18)
RHP Dean Deetz**
(24)
RHP Trent Thornton
(26)
INF Randy Cesar
(**
- made MLB debut in 2018)
CATCHING
It’s no
secret that the Astros have little to no interest in bringing back McCann, who
after a steady, if not unspectacular, 2017 season, completely fell off the cliff
in 2018. The organization has Garrett Stubbs and Max Stassi in case they completely
whiff on free agent options and trade avenues, and I wouldn’t be stunned if they brought back
Maldonado on the relative cheap given his 2017 Gold Glove season, as well as his nomination for one again this season.
That
said, I strongly believe the Astros will find an external option to handle
primary catching duties next season. Prominent free agent options would be
Jonathan Lucroy, Yasmani Grandal, Wilson Ramos, and Matt Wieters.
The Astros had interest in trading for Ramos prior to the August 1st trade deadline
and his eventual trade to Philadelphia, so I wouldn’t rule out a pursuit for
Ramos’ services now, especially given his strong finish at the plate for
Philly, slashing .337/.396/.483 with 19 strikeouts against 10 walks as well as
a 44% caught stealing rate (7/16) and his reputation as a more-than-decent pitch framer, which bodes well for him as a desirable two-way player.
If
Ramos goes elsewhere or stays in Philly, it’s my opinion that the team will
then revisit their early 2018 trade talks with Miami and their star behind the
dish, J.T. Realmuto.
The
Astros must find consistency behind the plate; something that eluded them in
2018.
More on him shortly.
STARTING
PITCHING
Dallas
Keuchel is gone, and Houston will be one beard poorer.
Replacing
2018 Keuchel, just from a statistical standpoint, won’t be overly difficult,
either with another starter or in the aggregate with a combo of new starters.
But
replacing Keuchel, the veteran leader, franchise icon, and fan favorite who has
that appreciation for life as an Astro when they were a perennial loser as well
as a World Series winner – that guy will be tough to replace.
The
2015 AL Cy Young Award winner, a three-time Gold Glove winner (2014-2016) who
is nominated for a fourth this season, and a two-time All-Star (2015, 2017),
Keuchel has been a more pedestrian version of the dominant Keuchel who, as
recently as early 2017, was looking like he was on his way to another Cy Young
Award after a 9-0 start to his season.
While 2017 still ended with him posting
his second-best season overall, 2018 saw a reduced Keuchel battling accelerated
first inning issues, having to calm himself down and play from behind much of
the season. There was a little bit of bad luck mixed in there but, overall, he
just wasn’t quite the same pitcher.
Still,
Keuchel posted a career-high 34 starts and posted 204.2 innings pitched with an
MLB-leading 53.8% groundball rate.
At 31
years-old this coming season, there’s little doubt that Keuchel will be able to
procure a slew of tantalizing offers well out of the range the Astros value him
at, so unless the market freezes again and Keuchel, a left-handed starter good
for 200+ innings annually, is somehow a victim of that, there’s little hope of
Keuchel remaining in Houston.
As for
Charlie Morton, the veteran righty has made it clear that he feels the end is
nigh for his career, but he isn’t done quite yet. If Morton, 35, confirms his
intentions of playing in 2019, he’s also made it known that he’d like to play
in Houston. It seems pretty obvious that a lucrative one or two-year deal would
be of mutual benefit to both the Astros and their 2017 postseason hero.
Somewhere in the $10-15 AAV million range.
However,
if the Astros decide against a lucrative engagement with Morton, expect the
Astros to push rookie Josh James into his role and look into a few veteran free
agent (more on who those may be in a moment).
Also of
note will be the health of Lance McCullers Jr., who is apparently facing the
possibility of Tommy John surgery, which would end his 2019 season before it
ever begins.
MARKET TARGETS AND THE ROLE OF SPIN RATE
If the
Astros face a 2019 without Keuchel, McCullers, and even Morton, expect the
organization to go big-game hunting after premier free agents such as D-Backs LHP
Patrick Corbin and Red Sox RHP Nathan Eovaldi.
However,
also keep an eye on these names:
RHP
Sonny Gray (via trade with Yankees)
RHP
Jeremy Hellickson
LHP
Trevor Cahill
LHP
Jamie Garcia
While
that may seem like a random smattering of veteran names, look closer and you’ll
see that each pitcher ranks pretty high in one category in particular that
tickles Houston’s, and pitching coach Brent Strom’s, fancy – spin rate.
In
particular, spin rate on their curveballs. If you stroll through MLB Statcast’s
list of pitchers with the league’s highest average spin rate via the curveball
or knucklecurve, you will see a not-so-surprising number of current Astros near
the top of the list.
RHP Ryan Pressly (2), RHP Charlie Morton (13), RHP
Lance McCullers Jr. (14), RHP Justin Verlander (24), RHP Will Harris (39) and
RHP Collin McHugh (50).
Remember,
when the Astros signed Morton to his now-expired two-year deal before the 2017
season, many an eyebrow were raised due to Morton’s vast injury history,
unimpressive results, and the mass assumption that he was pretty much done
after one injury-marred season in Philadelphia, which was preceded by a
frustrating run in Pittsburgh and Atlanta.
But
the Astros saw something in Morton they felt they could exploit if he could
stay healthy – his spin rate on his breaking pitch. That, and his blistering
fastball.
Morton
had been nothing more than a busted prospect-turned-middling journeyman when
Houston plucked him off the market for what turned out to be a bargain. Look
for the Astros to eyeball that same maneuver this season if the rotation sees
an exodus of two or more.
The
team is not without internal candidates, so the Astros could attempt to ride
with those in lieu of a pricey free agent addition. If Forrest Whitley
continues to impress in the Arizona Fall League, and guys who acquired major
league experience in 2018, such as James, Framber Valdez, and Cionel Perez, can
effectively stretch themselves back out, the Astros may feel less of a pull to
invest in external candidates. But I would bet on market solutions and the
cautious approach when it comes to their young arms.
MARWIN
So
important, he gets his own category.
Marwin
Gonzalez is going to make a lot of money this off-season. The Astros will face
no shortage of competition for A.J. Hinch’s Swiss Army knife, but I believe the
Astros will pony up the dough necessary to keep Marwin in the Bayou City for
years to come.
My belief in that is rooted in the parallel belief that the Astros consider him part of the aforementioned core of this team. Players like Marwin are not ripe for the picking, and if the past few postseasons have taught us anything, it's that guys like Marwin are necessary.
That
said, the Astros will not grossly overspend for anyone, and if the market
rebounds from its frosty 2017 pace, it could mean Marwin playing elsewhere. So
I suppose I should amend my previous statement to “I believe the Astros will
pony up the dough necessary to keep Marwin… if the price is sensible. Maybe slightly outlandish, but sensible still.”
Expect
teams like Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Atlanta to be hot on his heels, as
well as possibly the Dodgers and, perhaps the team that let him get away, the
Red Sox.
DESIGNATED
HITTER
Evan
Gattis hit 25 home runs in 2018 while driving in 78 runs. He also reached base
at a pathetic .284 clip (a career-worst, but not terribly far from his career
mark of .300). Gattis has always been good for some awesome streaks of
terrorizing opposing pitchers, but he’s not getting steady playing time, which
is affecting his rhythm at the plate and rendering his bat almost moot, which
is literally his only job.
While I
don’t rule out the Astros bringing back El Oso Blanco on the cheap, I don’t
believe the Astros will make it a priority.
Look
for Houston to explore conventional candidates, like Seattle's Nelson Cruz, or even more defensively-flexible players with a penchant for contact, like Jon Jay, or even our old friend and frequent, not to mention only, passenger of the Houston-to-Oakland Express, Jed Lowrie.
LEFT-HANDED
RELIEVERS
Tony
Sipp was a dumpster fire in 2016 and a dumpster fire on
wheels in 2017. Then he turned in a masterful season as Houston’s
primary LOOGIE in 2018.
Baseball, man.
At 3-1 with a 1.86 ERA, Sipp made 54 appearances while recording
only 38.2 innings. He surrendered a career-low eight earned runs, with only one
home run served up.
Sipp’s
2.41 FIP and ERA+ of 218 indicate a wild change in fortunes; one that no one
should anticipate being replicated. That said, if the price is right, the
Astros will have interest in retaining Sipp’s services.
The
Astros could also see value in bringing in free agent options such as Jake
Diekman, Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, Justin Wilson, Jonny Venters, or even
Sean Doolittle, assuming his $6 million club option isn’t picked up by the
Nationals.
FAR-TOO-PREMATURE-PREDICTIONS
FOR 2019’S OPENING DAY ROSTER
Starting
Infield
1B –
Yuli Gurriel
2B –
Jose Altuve
SS –
Carlos Correa
3B –
Alex Bregman
C –J.T.
Realmuto
Let’s
talk Realmuto here for a moment because, by now, you’ve probably heard his name
in conjunction with the Astros a lot recently.
Major
league trades are hard to predict, especially in this data-driven age where decision-makers
weigh every risk against every potential reward, often opting against risky
moves because of the long-term damage it can do to a team’s future viability.
I’m of
the mind that the Astros will make a major trade for Realmuto, parting with
considerable minor-league depth as well as major league pieces to acquire the
27-year-old star backstop. I am of that mind because the Astros and Marlins
are, seemingly, in a stars-aligned situation.
The
Astros have a young core that they won’t be forced to make vital decisions on
for at least a couple more seasons. Add to that a payroll that is not tied down
by long-term contracts, but rather slightly inflated due to existing deals set
to expire in the next year or two.
The
Marlins, entering year two of their Derek Jeter-led rebuild, aren’t interested
in an elongated process. They want to tear it down and, if their trades of
Ozuna and Yelich last winter are any indication, build it back up quickly with
young, nearly-ready prospect talent they could see in Miami in 2019. The Astros
are rich in young, talented players blocked at the big league level.
A deal
consisting of OFs Derek Fisher and Yordan Alvarez, INF AJ Reed, and righties
Brad Peacock and J.B. Bukauskas would hurt, but it would do wonders for the
Marlins’ talent depth, bringing their rebuild closer to fruition in terms of
talent reaching Miami in the near-term. Also wouldn’t stun me if the Marlins
tossed in INF Starlin Castro for good measure.
It’s no
lock, but when it comes to predicting trades, it’s a good bet these two teams
will be speaking again in the near future.
Miami’s previous proposals
reportedly centered on Kyle Tucker, so we’ll see where they’re at now.
Starting
Outfield
CF –
George Springer
RF-
Josh Reddick
LF –
Kyle Tucker
The
Astros love moving their outfielders around and steady positions are becoming
rarer as we go, but this is a pretty accurate portrayal of how I envision
opening day starting. I believe in Kyle Tucker, though my optimism is cautious.
He’ll be given every opportunity to secure the left field job in the spring,
and an organization this rich in talent stands as good a chance as any of
seeing their top position player prospect figure it all out and become the
player they’ve envisioned.
Starting
Rotation
SP 1 -
RHP Justin Verlander
SP 2 –
RHP Gerrit Cole
SP 3 –
RHP Charlie Morton
SP 4 –
RHP Lance McCullers Jr. ***
SP 5 –
RHP Josh James
*** -
may miss part or all of 2019 season
Hard to
make a prediction with so much in play here, but I’ve given it a conservative
go.
I
believe Morton’s desire to play, and to do so in Houston, will bring these two
back together for at least one more season. I believe Keuchel departs via free
agency and is replaced by Josh James, who impressed the organization and fans
alike with his electric fastball and effective secondary stuff.
However,
a cloud hangs over the health of Lance McCullers. If the young righty requires
surgery, perhaps even Tommy John as has been rumored, expect the Astros to look
outside the organization for a southpaw to offset their right-handed heavy
rotation. Again, I think they’ll be in on Patrick Corbin if they don’t feel
comfortable riding with Valdez. I also think guys like the aforementioned
Garcia, Hellickson, or even a deal with the Yankees for Sonny Gray, something
they’re actively trying to do, would work well too.
Bullpen
RHP
Roberto Osuna
RHP
Ryan Pressly
RHP
Chris Devenski
RHP
Will Harris
RHP
Collin McHugh
RHP Joe
Smith
LHP
Andrew Miller
Andrew
Miller would be a big get for the Astros, but coming off of a down season in
Cleveland, it’s not inconceivable that the Astros can nab Miller for cheaper
than it would have cost, say, a year ago.
Bench/Utility/DH
OF/INF
Tony Kemp
OF/INF
Marwin Gonzalez
C
Martin Maldonado
INF Starlin
Castro
OF Jake
Marisnick
Not a
lot of changes here – I believe the Astros will re-sign Marwin and Maldonado, and
I believe they’ll acquire Castro in a theoretical Realmuto deal, which
satisfies the team’s desire for a flexible player, position-wise, who can also
serve at DH and bring some thunder with the stick.
IN
SUMMARY…
Departures: LHP
Dallas Keuchel, C Brian McCann, C/DH Evan Gattis, LHP Tony Sipp, RHP Brad
Peacock, RHP J.B. Bukauskas, INF AJ Reed, OF Derek Fisher, OF Yordan Alvarez,
Arrivals: C
J.T. Realmuto, LHP Andrew Miller, INF Starlin Castro
Sticking Around:
INF/OF Marwin Gonzalez, C Martin Maldonado, RHP Charlie Morton
I don’t
have the Astros changing too much, but the names departing will surely change
the look and feel of the team we’ve known and loved for the past two years.
Seven years if you’re most affected by Keuchel’s departure.
In
return, I have the Astros swinging a major trade for a star catcher in
Realmuto, adding left-handed firepower in Miller, and supplementing an
already-flexible bench with even more flexibility and power.
Obviously,
this is all way too early given the timing, the many moving parts, internal
discussions that may be to the contrary, and all the moving machinations that
could make this seem more like my Christmas Wish List than a reasonable
prediction for what we’ll see when the Astros return to action in April.
Then
again, Jeff Luhnow is not one to sit on his hands when a glaring hole appears
on his roster (like at catcher), and I am confident that the Astros will make
headlines this winter.
Agree?
Disagree? Got other ideas? Hit me with em!
