I don’t think I’m breaking any news here when I say that
Carlos Correa is a very good baseball player. Opposing pitchers fear him, and
with good reason – the 2015 A.L. Rookie of the Year hit 23 home runs in his
first 100 games at the major league level, all while still figuring out how to
get carded when buying alcohol. Everything seems to come easy to him. Well,
almost everything. He has a kryptonite. Hang with me and please save your boos
until the end – Carlos Correa is not a good shortstop.
I know it seems impossible. We’re talking about a guy who
makes spectacular play after spectacular play at the game’s most difficult
position. I mean just take a look at this throw or this montage or this diving catch.
But hear me out: these plays look amazing, and they are, but
a better shortstop wouldn’t even have to make these plays. What Correa makes up
for in fantastic catches and a big arm, he lacks in range and quickness. This
isn’t a knock on Correa, it’s his own Paul Bunyanesqe gene’s fault. He launches
balls out of stadiums because he’s built like an ox, but those skills aren’t
conducive to being a good shortstop.
Since the turn of the 20th century, there have
only been 33 shortstops over six-foot-two (minimum 500 games). At
six-foot-four, Correa would be tied with Cal Ripken Jr. for the tallest shortstop
of all-time. Ripken was listed a 200 pounds, Correa is already at 215 and at 21
years old could still be growing.
According to ESPN, of the 73 players who have spent any time
at all at shortstop in 2016, Correa has been the 69th-best. That’s
not nice. Baseball-Reference has him at -0.4 WAR through 41 games, projecting
him to lose his team 19 runs with his defense over the course of a full season.
FanGraphs, the industry leader in advanced defensive
metrics, has Correa rated as the worst qualified shortstop in major league
baseball. At -4.6, his defensive rating is a full run worse than the next
shortstop, the Yankees Didi Gregorius. Correa’s UZR (an advanced defensive
metric that uses play-by-play data to estimate each fielder’s defensive
contribution in theoretical runs above or below an average fielder at his
position in that player’s league and year) has the Astros shortstop at -6.5.
That means in just 41 games, Correa has cost the Astros six and a half runs
with his defense. In contrast, Brandon Crawford has saved his Giants a
league-best 7.9 runs.
It’s not like Correa is hopeless in the field. He has a soft
glove with an above-average arm and great instincts. It doesn’t seem to matter
how hard the ball is hit at him, he makes a great first step and has elite
reactions. The problem is Correa simply doesn’t have the range to play
shortstop – his -5.7 range rating from FanGraphs is by far the worst in
baseball. You know what that sounds like? A third baseman.
At six-foot-four, 215 pounds with room to grow, Correa would
immediately profile as an above-average third baseman with the possibility to
become elite. With his natural talents and exemplary work ethic, there is no
reason to doubt that Correa would make an excellent defender at the hot corner.
The problem here is obvious. Correa has the makings of a
once-in-a-generation talent with plenty of self-confidence who has made it very
clear that he wants to stick at shortstop. You don't want to upset him by telling him he has actually been hurting the team in the field. He doesn’t often make bad plays – he
just doesn’t have the range to make plays that even an average shortstop could
make. I don’t think the Astros would consider moving Correa to third
mid-season, even with top prospect Alex Bregman nearly ready to play shortstop
in the big leagues. This seems like a conversation A.J. Hinch would need to
have after the 2016 season.
But the sooner the better. The Astros are in position to be
contenders for the forseeable future. There is no time to mince words: Correa
needs to step aside and move to the position most scouts said he would
eventually have to go to anyway. I don’t think Correa is too naïve or too proud to force the Astros put him at shortstop. Hinch has the backing of stats, video,
and could use one of the best defenders of his era, Astros roving instructor Adam
Everett, to drive his point home.
Besides, it’s not like anyone reads the “position” part of
Hall of Fame plaques anyway.
