When
thinking about the first baseman of the future, one name immediately comes to
mind: Jon Singleton. As part of the return in the Hunter Pence
deal is, he’s one of the best first base prospects in all of baseball and was
ranked the 27th best overall prospect by Baseball America and
MLB.com prior to the 2013 season. But I
think it’s fair to say that questions still remain about his future. There’s no question his stock took a bit of a
beating when he was hit with a 50 game suspension last season for violating
league anti-drug policy and he never really got on track for the remainder of
the season, hitting only six homeruns in 73 games with OKC with a sub par .687
OPS. Singleton has helped his stock
with a very strong showing in the Venezuelan Winter Leagues where, as of
12/15/2013, he has a league leading eight home runs. Astros General Manager Jeff Luhnow has made
it no secret that he prefers a minor league player dominate a level before
being promoted, so Singleton may still not be ready.
Needless
to say, the Astros are looking for a first basemen in case Singleton needs more
time to develop and to replace the mediocre production that Brett Wallace has provided. Houston was rumored to be interested on
multiple first base free agent targets earlier this winter, and even made an
offer to Mike Morse, but they've been rebuffed on all. Kendrys Morales is lone name who remains and,
while he had a relatively solid 2013 in Seattle last season, there are some
downsides to whichever team signs him. Morales
has no defensive ability and the Astros already have the DH spot committed to
another butcher of the glove, Chris Carter.
Morales is likely looking for a longer term deal than the Astros would
like to offer, perhaps in the three to five year range. The biggest deterrent, however, is the
compensation pick due to Seattle for a rejected qualifying offer. For someone who’s merely good, like Morales,
that attached draft pick is a major sticking point.
So,
a trade seems like a real option at this point and there are some players
potentially available. Adam Lind and
Justin Smoak are a couple of names that have been floated, but one that really excites
me is Mike Carp. He is the 27 year-old, fair-skinned
slugger who was acquired on waivers last spring by the Boston Red Sox. In 86 games last season, Carp posted a
weighty .885 OPS with eight home runs. Fangraphs
gave him a WAR of 1.2 (which, based on the current free agent market, would be
between $5-10 million per season). He'll
be in his age 28 season in 2014, so he probably won’t ever grow in to a Prince
Fielder or Albert Pujols, but he can be a serviceable player. Both Steamer and Oliver projections think Carp
will be a positive value player for 2014, with a WAR somewhere between .6 and 2
(based on the number of at-bats he is given).
Brett Wallace has never posted a positive WAR value (per Fangraphs) in
any of his four big league season, so that could be a bigger boost than it
appears at first glance.
Now,
why would Boston want to get rid of him?
The short answer is they wouldn't want to, but there are a few
advantages for Boston to deal him now.
First,
nobody really knows what the future holds for Carp with such a limited number
of Major League at-bats. (Yes, I pointed
to the above projections of Carp taking a step forward next year, but Carp
could potentially also take a step back, too.
We just don’t know.) For Boston
to sell now could be selling high.
Carp
is a first year arbitration eligible player for 2014, so he’ll start to become
expensive soon. Boston’s projected 2014
payroll is expected to be in the neighborhood of $177 million. The luxury tax threshold is $178 million, so
the rising salary of a lesser player (like Carp) might become a factor.
Another
issue is that Carp is presumably blocked at every other starting position. The Red Sox have Mike Napoli as their first
baseman, David Ortiz as their DH, and some combination of Daniel Nava/Jackie
Bradley Jr./Johnny Gomes fighting for a spot in left field. Carp is a luxury piece for them and should be
expendable.
What
the Astros can offer right now is relatively limited. The major league roster has been totally stripped
of veterans and the team is understandably gun-shy about dealing
prospects. One name on Houston's Major League
roster that stands out is Carlos Corporan.
With the addition of Max Stassi to the 40 man roster last summer,
Houston now has three major league ready catchers for two roster spots (plus
Carlos Perez available at Triple A OKC).
Corporan is probably not a starter due to his mediocre hitting and
on-base skills, but he does provide value for his defensive ability. He won't be eligible for arbitration until
the 2015 season, so the service time considerations are to Boston's
advantage. Corporan compares favorably
to David Ross, Boston’s backup catcher and another good defender, who is 36
years of age and making $3 million a season.
What Corporan offers Boston is a younger, cheaper David Ross and a
player they can plug-in at the end of the 2014 season. Corporan is just one type of player that could
be offered, but the hope is that Houston wouldn’t have to leverage it’s future
in order to make a deal happen.
We
don’t know what the 2014 season holds for Houston, but we do know that a return
to respectability has already started. Would
Houston really acquire Scott Feldman, Chad Qualls, and Dexter Fowler to try and
lose another 100 games? If the Astros
are serious about winning, and let’s assume that they are, they need to get real
about finding a solution at first base. Kendrys
Morales isn’t a good fit, Brett Wallace hasn’t shown he’s worthy, and the jury
is still out on Singleton. Houston needs
a bit of insurance, a place holder if you will, and Mike Carp might just be their
best option for 2014.
