Chris Jaffe's HOF prediction piece

The Hardball Times' Chris Jaffe has, for the last few years, posted a HOF ballot prediction piece - which is exactly what it sounds like.

Here's his 2013 piece, and what it means for Biggio/Bagwell.

So let's get down to it. Jaffe predicts:

Biggio - 76%
Bagwell - 52%

This is good news for Biggio who, under the prediction, would be elected by a very narrow margin. Not such good news for Jeff Bagwell, who would fall short for the third straight year.

How accurate might this be? Let Jaffe himself explain:
The track record is pretty good so far. Through five election cycles, I’ve predicted vote totals 77 times and been within five points of the result 64 times (and within one percentage point of the actual results 25 times) with an average margin of error of 3.3 percent.

On Biggio:
My hunch is that Biggio just skates in. Many voters see 3,000 hits and just check his name. For half of the voters denying Clemens and Bonds, Biggio is the easiest pick because he comes with that bright shiny number: 3,000.

As it refers to Bagwell, his prediction of 52% is a four-point retreat from Bagwell's showing in 2012. Jaffe pegged Bagwell at 54% in 2012, two points shy of #5s actual results.

I'll allow the other guys to weigh in on their own, but I still Biggio coming in between 70-74% and Bagwell between 60-65%.