ESPN took a good hard look at the number of wins Wandy can expect in 2012.
Click the link for the hard math, but here's your money quote:
Quite frankly, a range of 14-16 wins seems quite reasonable to expect this season. When you throw in the "X-factor" of a potential trade to a contending team -- and the probable resulting increase in run support and, ultimately, victories -- as the trade deadline approaches, then the chances of Rodriguez reaching that range would seem to be even more of a legitimate likelihood.