Okay, so the news out of Astros camp this morning is that Brett Myers is moving from the rotation to the closer spot.
I don't understand. Myers threw 216IP in 2011, tied for 17th-most in all of baseball, and now the Astros are going to cut his innings by 30-40% (I meant, "to," instead of "by") of that total. And with Lyon and Myers in the bullpen, that's $16m+ for the 8th-9th innings.
The idea was Jeff Luhnow's, says Alyson Footer:
Jeff Luhnow first approached Mills with the idea for Myers to close. Mills thought about it and agreed. Then they brought it to Myers.
Expanded quote from Luhnow:
"From my standpoint, we have some depth in the rotation between Duke, Livan, Happ, Sosa and Harrell and all the young guys. We feel like we're in pretty good shape there and have some choices. We felt like we were a little exposed in the bullpen, and having a guy who's been successful in that role and who's got the mentality and stuff to do well takes pressure of Brandon Lyon coming off an injury and doesn't put pressure on young kids like David Carpenter and Wilton Lopez."
Let's try to figure this out:
(1) The Astros have more rotation arms than they do bullpen arms. The majority of the arms the Astros have vying for spots are gunning for rotation spots, not necessarily a bullpen job. With Lyles, Livan Hernandez, Zach Duke, et al, the Astros needed someone reliable at the back end of the bullpen, and that apparently didn't include Brandon Lyon or David Carpenter. Your rotation is currently Wandy, Norris, Happ, and Lyles/Livan/Weiland/Sosa/Harrell/Duke. It simply opens up a spot for a *more effective* starter.
(2) Myers had better "stuff" as a reliever. Zachary Levine pointed out that FanGraphs had Myers' fastball velocity at 88.4mph in 2011, down from 92.1mph in 2007 when he came out of the bullpen.
(3) If there's one thing that's clear from this, it's that (as John Royal pointed out) the one GM in the world who thought Myers was worth $10m+ was Ed Wade. Financial breakdown of MLB's "Top 20" closers:
Mariano Rivera: $15m
Jonathan Papelbon: $11.0058m (not kidding)
Brett Myers: $11m
Jose Valverde: $9m
Brian Wilson: $8.5m
Carlos Marmol: $7m
Heath Bell: $6m
Leo Nunez*: $6m
Joakim Soria: $6m
Brandon League: $5m
J.J. Putz: $4.5m
Francisco Cordero: $4.5m
Chris Perez: $4.5m
Joel Hanrahan: $4.1m
Kyle Farnsworth: $3.3m
Sergio Santos: $1m
Neftali Feliz: $451K (pre-arb)
John Axford: $443K (pre-arb)
Craig Kimbrel: $419K (pre-arb)
Drew Storen: $418K (pre-arb)
Jordan Walden: $414K (pre-arb)
* - or whatever his name is
Yes, Brett Myers will be the 3rd-highest paid closer in all of baseball in 2012, after throwing 439.2IP over the last two seasons.
