Friday, December 11, 2009

On the 2010 Lineup

Kevin brought up a good question in the comments of a post from this morning on Happy Pete's splits: Where will he hit in the lineup?

This is tough one, because it looks as though there are only a few spots that are a given:

1. Bourn
2.
3. Lance
4. Lee
5.
6.
7.
8.

That means we need to find spots for Matsui, Pence, Manzella, Feliz/Blum, and at catcher. And God knows who that's going to be, but He ain't telling.

Feliz has spend 43.3% of his career plate appearances (1782 of 4115) hitting in the #7 spot for a .256/.297/.414 line. He's only started 10 games in the #2 spot, and he's spent some time in #3/#4/#5 - but that won't be happening this year. We also need to keep in mind that Manzella won't exactly be a force with his bat, and we have an idea of what Quintero/Towles can do. So if we put Happy Pete in #6, it allows Towles to hit 7th, and Manzella to slide to #8.

Pence spent most of his time in the #6 spot (51.5% of his PAs) in 2009, and posted an .844 OPS (118 OPS+). Next-highest PAs in the lineup was in the 5th spot, where his OPS was an even .800. He also had Tejada in the lineup hitting mostly 5th, but that's obviously not an option this year, so I'd like to see Pence step up to #5.

This leaves Matsui/Keppinger in the #2 spot. Thus, the lineup with the CHONE projections of:














NameBA/OBP/SLGXBH-RBIK:BB
Bourn.264/.335/.36528-2894:42
Matsui.255/.314/.36430-3978:34
Berkman.275/.377/.49856-89107:77
Lee.292/.341/.50359-9756:37
Pence.284/.344/.48358-75104:47
Feliz.256/.299/.40744-7371:30
Manzella.245/.294/.34427-3386:26
Towles.254/.335/.40925-3861:27
Keppinger.282/.341/.39931-4037:33
Blum.238/.299/.36723-3952:23


Note that, from CHONE's projections, the Astros could possibly have two players with an OBP under .300, and three under .315. Oh, and nary a .300 hitter.