Prized prospect. Center fielder of the future. Dangerous speed, above-average power. Well, at least he has the speed part in the bag.
What the heck happened? He was the center-piece in the Lidge deal - which, I've said it before and I'll say it again - there's no way Lidge does what he did in '08 in Houston.
Let's take a look at Michael Bourn...
Some surface level stats:
.242 against righties. .190 against lefties. / .249 at home. .210 on the road.
.190 during the day.
April - .195 / May - .214 / June - .274 / July - .261 / August - .137 / September - .274
Three teams he drilled: The Yankees (.455), the Cubs (.333), the Pirates (.354).
Three teams he crapped the bed against: The Giants (0-for-21), the Dodgers (.129), the Nationals (.118).
Hits .346 on the first pitch, .333 at 0-1. When behind in the count (0-1, 0-2, 1-2), Bourn hit .204 (32-for-157). So the key is to not swing at bad pitches, right? That's stupid advice, because everybody has that goal.
Let's take a look at his opposition. We'll consider pitchers he faced in 5+ at-bats.
Chicago Cubs:
Carlos Zambrano, 1x7; Ryan Dempster, 2x6
Cincinnati Reds:
Bronson Arroyo, 1x6; Johnny Cueto, 3x5
Colorado Rockies:
Aaron Cook, 0x7; Ubaldo Jimenez, 0x5
Florida Marlins:
Ricky Nolasco, 0x6
LA Dodgers:
Chad Billingsley, 1x7; Hiroki Kuroda, 0x6
Milwaukee Brewers:
Manny Parra, 2x8; Dave Bush, 2x5
NY Mets:
John Maine, 2x6
Philadelphia Phillies:
Adam Eaton, 2x7; Brett Myers, 2x6; Kyle Kendrick, 4x6
Pittsburgh Pirates:
Ian Snell, 4x10; Ross Ohlendorf, 3x7; Tyler Yates, 1x5
San Francisco Giants:
Tim Lincecum, 0x5
St. Louis Cardinals:
Adam Wainwright, 2x9; Kyle Lohse, 0x8; Brad Thompson, 0x5
Bourn also has an interesting hitting zone, as well. He hits well up and outside, yet chases pitches inside (63%) and low (70%). So it's like Bourn doesn't really know his own strike zone. He pulls the ball, too - 41% of the balls in play go to right field.
Reason for hope (albeit wary hope - the most satisfying kind):
1. He showed a tremendous amount of improvement in the Dominican League this winter.
2. September was perhaps his strongest month of the season, meaning that April-August was a very steep learning curve. September featured Bourn's highest OBP and AVG (tied with June).
3. Really, 2009 can't get much worse, right?
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
